Improving Bayesian analysis for LISA Pathfinder using an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo method     

Luigi Ferraioli  Edward K. Porter  Michele Armano  Heather Audley  Giuseppe Congedo  Ingo Diepholz  Ferran Gibert  Martin Hewitson  Mauro Hueller  Nikolaos Karnesis  Natalia Korsakova  Miquel Nofrarias  Eric Plagnol  Stefano Vitale 《Experimental Astronomy》2014,37(1):109-125

We present a parameter estimation procedure based on a Bayesian framework by applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to the calibration of the dynamical parameters of the LISA Pathfinder satellite. The method is based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and a two-stage annealing treatment in order to ensure an effective exploration of the parameter space at the beginning of the chain. We compare two versions of the algorithm with an application to a LISA Pathfinder data analysis problem. The two algorithms share the same heating strategy but with one moving in coordinate directions using proposals from a multivariate Gaussian distribution, while the other uses the natural logarithm of some parameters and proposes jumps in the eigen-space of the Fisher Information matrix. The algorithm proposing jumps in the eigen-space of the Fisher Information matrix demonstrates a higher acceptance rate and a slightly better convergence towards the equilibrium parameter distributions in the application to LISA Pathfinder data. For this experiment, we return parameter values that are all within ～1σ of the injected values. When we analyse the accuracy of our parameter estimation in terms of the effect they have on the force-per-unit of mass noise, we find that the induced errors are three orders of magnitude less than the expected experimental uncertainty in the power spectral density.  相似文献   

Connectivity and single/dual domain transport models: tests on a point-bar/channel aquifer analogue     

Diana Dell’Arciprete  Chiara Vassena  Fulvia Baratelli  Mauro Giudici  Riccardo Bersezio  Fabrizio Felletti 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(4):761-778

In porous aquifers, groundwater flow and solute transport strongly depend on the sedimentary facies distribution at fine scale, which determines the heterogeneity of the conductivity field; in particular, connected permeable sediments could form preferential flow paths. Therefore, properly defined statistics, e.g. total and intrinsic facies connectivity, should be correlated with transport features. In order to improve the assessment of the relevance of this relationship, some tests are conducted on two ensembles of equiprobable realizations, obtained with two different geostatistical simulation methods—sequential indicator simulation and multiple point simulation (MPS)—from the same dataset, which refers to an aquifer analogue of sediments deposited in a fluvial point-bar/channel association. The ensembles show different features; simulations with MPS are more structured and characterised by preferential flow paths. This is confirmed by the analysis of transport connectivities and by the interpretation of data from numerical experiments of conservative solute transport with single and dual domain models. The use of two ensembles permits (1) previous results obtained for single realizations to be consolidated on a more firm statistical basis and (2) the application of principal component analysis to assess which quantities are statistically the most relevant for the relationship between connectivity indicators and flow and transport properties.  相似文献   

Evaluation of liquefaction potential in an intermountain Quaternary lacustrine basin (Fucino basin,central Italy)     

Paolo Boncio  Sara Amoroso  Giovanna Vessia  Marco Francescone  Mauro Nardone  Paola Monaco  Daniela Famiani  Deborah Di Naccio  Alessia Mercuri  Maria Rosaria Manuel  Fabrizio Galadini  Giuliano Milana 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(1):91-111

In this study, we analyse the susceptibility to liquefaction of the Pozzone site, which is located on the northern side of the Fucino lacustrine basin in central Italy. In 1915, this region was struck by a M 7.0 earthquake, which produced widespread coseismic surface effects that were interpreted to be liquefaction-related. However, the interpretation of these phenomena at the Pozzone site is not straightforward. Furthermore, the site is characterized by an abundance of fine-grained sediments, which are not typically found in liquefiable soils. Therefore, in this study, we perform a number of detailed stratigraphic and geotechnical investigations (including continuous-coring borehole, CPTu, SDMT, SPT, and geotechnical laboratory tests) to better interpret these 1915 phenomena and to evaluate the liquefaction potential of a lacustrine environment dominated by fine-grained sedimentation. The upper 18.5 m of the stratigraphic succession comprises fine-grained sediments, including four strata of coarser sediments formed by interbedded layers of sand, silty sand and sandy silt. These strata, which are interpreted to represent the frontal lobes of an alluvial fan system within a lacustrine succession, are highly susceptible to liquefaction. We also find evidence of paleo-liquefaction, dated between 12.1–10.8 and 9.43–9.13 kyrs ago, occurring at depths of 2.1–2.3 m. These data, along with the aforementioned geotechnical analyses, indicate that this site would indeed be liquefiable in a 1915-like earthquake. Although we found a broad agreement among CPTu, DMT and shear wave velocity “simplified procedures” in detecting the liquefaction potential of the Pozzone soil, our results suggest that the use and comparison of different in situ techniques are highly recommended for reliable estimates of the cyclic liquefaction resistance in lacustrine sites characterized by high content of fine-grained soils. In geologic environments similar to the one analysed in this work, where it is difficult to detect liquefiable layers, one can identify sites that are susceptible to liquefaction only by using detailed stratigraphic reconstructions, in situ characterization, and laboratory analyses. This has implications for basic (Level 1) seismic microzonation mapping, which typically relies on the use of empirical evaluations based on geologic maps and pre-existing sub-surface data (i.e., age and type of deposits, prevailing grain size, with particular attention paid to clean sands, and depth of the water table).  相似文献   

Observations of near-inertial oscillations along the Brazilian continental shelf break     

de Freitas  Pedro Paulo  Amorim  Felipe de Luca Lopes  Mill  Guilherme Nogueira  da Costa  Vladimir Santos  Gabioux  Mariela  Cirano  Mauro  Paiva  Afonso de Moraes 《Ocean Dynamics》2019,69(10):1203-1215

Ocean Dynamics - Near-inertial oscillations (NIO) are intermittent motions with a frequency close to the inertial frequency and represent an important fraction of the energy to the currents in the...  相似文献   

Uniform fragility spectra for the performance‐based seismic design of structures considering variabilities in structural properties          下载免费PDF全文

Mauro Niño  Gustavo Ayala  Saúl López 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(8):1742-1754

This paper presents a new methodology based on structural performance to determine uniform fragility design spectra, i.e., spectra with the same probability of exceedance of a performance level for a given seismic intensity. The design spectra calculated with this methodology provide directly the lateral strength, in terms of yield‐ pseudo‐accelerations, associated with the rate of exceedance of a specific ductility characterizing the performance level for which the structures will be designed. This procedure involves the assessment of the seismic hazard using a large enough number of seismic records of several magnitudes; these records are simulated with an improved empirical Green function method. The statistics of the performance of a single degree of freedom system are obtained using Monte Carlo simulation considering the seismic demand, the fundamental period, and the strength of the structure as uncertain variables. With these results, the conditional probability that a structure exceeds a specific performance level is obtained. The authors consider that the proposed procedure is a significant improvement to others considered in the literature and a useful research tool for the further development of uniform fragility spectra that can be used for the performance‐based seismic design and retrofit of structures.  相似文献